No Turning This Tide

It’s only day 27 of 2008, and already there is news that Beijing’s population has exceeded the 16 million mark – an increase of 520,000 from the same period last year, and the fastest growth in five years.

Given this explosive growth, city officials have recently announced an about-face from last year, when they let known their intention to limit the capital’s population to 18 million by 2010 (a pipe dream, at this rate) via “administrative measures” (a.k.a. “restrictions”), and have instead promised to develop “the city’s vast suburbs and countryside” to help relieve the population pressure.

This kind of growth has been seen in other cities like Mexico City and Mumbai, with often-dubious results, and what will be interesting to see about Beijing’s case is how it will all pan out, particularly after the party’s over in August.

Will Beijing, in essence, become an even more vast “Brave New World” of thriving, utopian communities (as the higher-ups hope), an increasingly not-so concentric series of disparate communities, or a patchwork quilt of opulence and decay? Unfortunately, given the track record of other “mega-cities” around the world, the latter seems more likely.

Moreover, these recent statistics and subsequent announcements foreshadow a profound geopolitical shift in which huge swathes of heretofore agrarian land will become, for better or worse, "urbanized" – something quite unprecedented in Chinese history. And if things turn out according to plan, then Beijing is indeed destined to become a “megalopolis” (somewhat like geographer Jean Gottman’s conception of America’s upper East Coast). Tianjin is suddenly looking a whole of a lot closer …

Links and Sources
China Daily: Beijing not to curb rising population http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-01/25/content_6419905.htm
Flickr.com Discussion Groups: Environment News (01/22/08): Beijing population tops 16 mln target 2 years early.
http://www.flickr.com/groups/349459@N25/discuss/72157603772484566/
chinaview.cn: Beijing sees annual growth of 520,000 in population
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-01/21/content_7466289.htm
About.com: BosWash - The Metropolitan Area from Boston to Washington
http://geography.about.com/cs/urbansprawl/a/megalopolis.htm
Nationalgeographic.com: megacities
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0211/feature3/?fs=www3.nationalgeographic.com&fs=plasma.nationalgeographic.com
Image: http://earth.esa.int/ers/ers_action/Beijing_China_SAR_IM_Orbit_39150_20021016.jpg